ι Huracán Iota (Categoría 4)

[maatii96]

Ni es una Invest todavía, pero ya fue todo.

A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is expected to
move westward into more conducive environmental conditions over the
next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late
this week or this weekend when the wave reaches the central or
western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Edit: apenas hice el topic y ya la clasificaron.

AL, 98, 2020111012, , BEST, 0, 143N, 650W, 25, 1009, DB

[Santiago Linari]

Hay dos páginas que muestran un OHC diferente sobre el Caribe. No sé con cuál quedarme.
Ambas dan muchísimo calor oceánico, pero una lo extiende por casi todo el Caribe





El OHC en la zona de Cancún está altísimo, y eso que pasaron varios sistemas por ahí ya.

[Wyoming]

30/80 en el último TWO (tropical weather outlook) del NHC.

[maatii96]

A tropical wave located over the east-central Caribbean Sea
continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms.
Satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance is gradually
becoming better organized and a tropical depression will likely
form by the weekend as it moves slowly westward over the central
and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system
is expected to bring heavy rainfall along with possible flash
flooding to the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and portions of
Hispaniola over the next day or so. For more detailed information,
refer to products issued by your local weather office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Wyoming]

80/90 en el último TWO.
Hoy tenemos PTC31/DT31. Chocante.

A decir verdad, me preocupa el tremendo apoyo que le están dando los modelos a este sistema. HMON y HWRF que le vinieron pegando excelente tanto a la estructura como a la intensidad en el periodo largo a los ciclones, ven a 98L/IOTA como un poderoso ciclón categoría 5 con 909/145kt en 144hr.
GFS lo ve parecido, con presiones en el rango de 930-915mb y 140kt.
ECMWF, ICON y JMA también lo ven en ese rango.
Son solo salidas pero llama la atención la coincidencia y el timing. Pareciera que si... pero todavía es prematuro saberlo

Las condiciones van a ser mejores que las que tuvo Eta, ojo con eso.
Mas que notable, parece ser que el anticiclón en altura acompañara al sistema justo en el centro de este, por lo que de ser verdad, espero a un sistema parecido estructuralmente a su antecesora

[maatii96]

Muy cerca de ser clasificado ya.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure over the central Caribbean Sea have increased and become
better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or
tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight while the
system moves slowly westward. Additional development of the
system is likely over the weekend, and interests in Honduras and
Nicaragua should closely monitor the progress of the disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

TXNT23 KNES 131146
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98L)

B. 13/1130Z

C. 14.4N

D. 73.8W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES NEAR THE LARGE COLD OVERCAST
YIELDS A DT OF 2.0 USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. MET AND PT ARE EQUAL TO 1.5
BASED ON DEVELOPMENT TREND IN LAST 18H. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE

[Wyoming]

Derechito a depresión tropical.

AL, 31, 2020111312, , BEST, 0, 143N, 740W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 60, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, THIRTY-ONE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 066, TRANSITIONED, alD82020 to al312020,

[maatii96]

31L...

[maatii96]

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND APPROACH CENTRAL AMERICA AS A
HURRICANE EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 74.3W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

Categoría 2 en el primer prono ya. Ugh.

INIT 13/1500Z 14.2N 74.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 14.0N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 13.8N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 13.9N 77.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 14.1N 79.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 14.5N 80.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 14.9N 82.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 15.2N 85.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/1200Z 14.7N 88.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

[Wyoming]

Para que entendamos lo excepcional que puede llegar a ser Iota...