Genevieve no vino a dar vueltas y ya tiene
50 kt con una presión mínima de
998 hPa. Voló convección profunda en el centro en las últimas horas e imágenes de microondas indican que construyó un ojo en niveles medios, con un núcleo bien definido. Con esto en mente es muy probable que Genevieve entre en un período de intensificación rápida pronto, tal es así que el SHIPS está metiendo 100% de probabilidad para 45 kt en 36 horas y 55 kt en 48 horas. Nunca había visto algo así.
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 51% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 98% is 7.8 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 90% is 10.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 81% is 13.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 65% is 15.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 100% is 14.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 100% is 16.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 58% is 12.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Tal es así la emoción por este sistema, que en la última discusión del NHC usaron... un signo de exclamación!
También le subieron el pico a 120 kt (un categoría 4), pero no me extrañaría para nada que coquetee con la categoría 5, o que incluso la alcance.
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 170233
TCDEP2
Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020
Infrared (IR) and passive microwave (MW) satellite imagery indicate
that Genevieve has continued to rapidly intensify while becoming
better organized. A 17/0121Z SSMI/S MW image showed that the
cyclone had already developed a 15-nmi-diameter, ragged mid-level
eye, while both IR and MW data indicate tight banding features
spiraling into a compact inner-core convective region. The initial
intensity of 50 kt is based on unanimous T3.0/45 kt satellite
classifications from TAFB and SAB, with the aforementioned eye
feature nudging upward the final intensity assessment.
The initial motion estimate remains west-northwestward or 290/16 kt.
The track forecast and reasoning remain unchanged and fairly
straightforward. Genevieve is expected to move generally
west-northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a sprawling
deep-layer ridge located over the western United States and
northern and central Mexico throughout the forecast period. The new
NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track,
and lies near the middle of the tightly packed consensus track model
forecasts.
Now that Genevieve has developed a tight inner-core wind field and
an eye feature, it isn't a question of will the cyclone rapidly
strengthen, but rather how quickly and how much will the
strengthening be! The deep-layer and mid-level vertical wind shear
parameters are forecast to be weak at less than 5 kt through 72
hours, while the upper-level outflow pattern is expected to steadily
improve during that time, including the development of dual outflow
channels to the north and south. These very favorable atmospheric
conditions will coincide with a very moist mid-level regime and
sea-surface temperatures (SST) of at least 30 deg C. As a result,
the intensity forecast has been nudged upward, with rapid
intensification (RI) of about 30 kt expected during next 24 h,
followed by a slightly faster rate of RI in the 24-48 hour time
frame when the dual outflow channels will be present. By 60-72
hours, Genevieve is expected to be moving over shallower warm
water, which should result in significant cold upwelling and the
onset weakening. More rapid weakening is forecast thereafter due to
the cyclone moving over 23-25 deg C SSTs. The official intensity is
near the upper end of the guidance envelope, but remains below the
ECMWF-based SHIPS model forecast which brings Genevieve to near 130
kt in 48-60 hours.
Although the tropical cyclone is forecast to remain well offshore of
the southern coast of Mexico, large swells generated by the
strengthening system are expected to begin affecting portions of
the coast of southern Mexico over the next day or so.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0300Z 12.4N 100.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 13.4N 102.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 14.8N 105.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 16.3N 108.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 17.7N 110.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 19/1200Z 19.1N 111.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 20.4N 112.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 22.7N 116.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 22/0000Z 24.7N 119.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Stewart
