La mayoría de las veces armamos topics para ciclones ya formados que pueden ser importantes, y nos perdemos sistemas que no alcanzan mucha intensidad y no merecen un topic propio o no sabemos a partir de qué se formaron.
Acá podemos poner información sobre las áreas de vigilancia del NHC.
Un poco tarde, ya estamos casi a mediados de octubre, pero aún es una época que puede tener mucha actividad.
Después de estar una semana inactivo, ahora hay tres Invest en el Atlántico.
Típico de esta época, los frentes se estacionan sobre aguas aún cálidas y se forman perturbaciones.
Invest 91L
1. A non-tropical low pressure system located over the central Atlantic
between Bermuda and the Azores continues to produce gale-force winds
to the north of its center. Environmental conditions are somewhat
conducive for the low to acquire some subtropical or tropical
characteristics through early Wednesday, and this system could still
become a tropical or subtropical storm later today or early
Wednesday while it moves slowly westward. Upper-level winds are
expected to become unfavorable for further development by Wednesday
evening. Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Invest 92L
3. Recent satellite wind data indicate that a small area of low
pressure has formed in association with an area of disturbed weather
located a few hundred miles southeast of Charleston, South Carolina.
The system is producing winds to near tropical storm strength and
the associated thunderstorm activity has recently shown some signs
of organization. Although upper-level winds, are not particularly
favorable for additional development, only a small increase in
organization could result in the formation of a tropical depression
or storm later today or tonight. On Wednesday, the system is
forecast to merge with the low off the east coast of the United
States, and further development is not anticipated after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
El tercer disturbio aún no ha sido nombrado como "Invest" por el NHC. Se encuentra al NE del Invest 92L.
2. Cloudiness and showers located off the mid-Atlantic coast of the
United States are associated with a frontal boundary and a broad,
non-tropical area of low pressure. This system is forecast to drift
northward or northeastward and deepen as a non-tropical low off the
east coast of the United States during the next day or so. This
system could acquire some subtropical characteristics by the end of
the week while it remains off the east coast of the United States.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring strong
winds, coastal flooding, and rough surf to portions of the mid-
Atlantic and northeastern United States coast through late week.
Additional information on this system can also be found in local
products and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Yendo más lejos, el GFS insiste en todas sus salidas desde hace días en la formación de un ciclón tropical a partir del "Central America Gyre", un gran área de baja presión con circulación cerrada que cubre América Central, el Caribe y el extremo NE del Pacífico. Es típico que en octubre puedan formarse ciclones a partir de esta gran área de baja presión, ya sea en el Caribe/Golfo de México, o del lado del Pacífico NE.
También quiere desarrollar una onda tropical que sale de África para esas fechas (aparece en el mapa que subí).
