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esta es una pequeña discucion dada:
Tropical cyclone 01a (one) warning nr 002
01 active tropical cyclone in northio
Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
wind radii valid over open water only
---
warning position:
111800z --- near 20.2n 71.3e
movement past six hours - 300 degrees at 04 kts
position accurate to within 060 nm
position based on center located by a combination of
satellite and synoptic data
present wind distribution:
Max sustained winds - 035 kt, gusts 045 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
repeat posit: 20.2n 71.3e
---
forecasts:
12 hrs, valid at:
120600z --- 20.7n 70.6e
Max sustained winds - 030 kt, gusts 040 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
dissipating as a significant tropical cyclone over water
vector to 24 hr posit: 315 deg/ 04 kts
---
24 hrs, valid at:
121800z --- 21.3n 70.0e
Max sustained winds - 025 kt, gusts 035 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
dissipated as a significant tropical cyclone over land
---
remarks:
112100z position near 20.3n 71.1e.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 01a (one), located approximately 365 nm
southeast of Karachi, Pakistan, has tracked west-northwestward at 04
knots over the past six hours. Recent animated infrared satellite
imagery shows deep convection waning over a small low level
circulation center (LLCC) evident in an 111532z ssmis image. The
current position is based on ship reports from the periphery of the
LLCC and recent microwave satellite imagery, including the 111532z
ssmis image. The current intensity of 35 knots is consistent with an
111430z Dvorak T-number estimate of 2.5 from knes and structure
evident in microwave satellite imagery. Easterly vertical wind shear
has increased over the past six hours in response to strong
peripheral flow around an eastward-migrating upper-level anticyclone
to the northeast. Tc 01a continues to track west-northwestward along
the western periphery of a weak low to mid-level subtropical ridge
over northern India. Generally northwestward motion is expected to
continue over the next 24 hours as the subtropical ridge remains the
dominant steering mechanism. Persistent vertical wind shear and
landfall between tau 12 and tau 24 should result in dissipation
below the warning threshold intensity of 35 knots within the next 24
hours. The numerical model guidance remains in poor agreement,
likely due to widely varying representations of the cyclone
structure in the analysis fields of each model. As with the previous
forecast, the current track forecast is consistent with persistence
and analysis of the current low to mid-level steering pattern.
However, the track forecast is a faster and west of the previous
forecast to account for past motion and a stronger expected steering
flow. Maximum significant wave height at 111800z is 8 feet. Next
warnings at 120300z, 120900z and 121500z.//